When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. The morale of the people up there is bad. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. We have become so divided. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. I think its very political right now, honestly. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Our roads need to be fixed. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. We were as far down to five cooks last year. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. Logistically, its a disaster. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. This is a high farming community.. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. I hope.. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. I think all politicians are crooks. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. Theyre scared. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. . But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Im looking at both sides of it. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. But thats not the picture I look at. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Its too big. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. A lot of people think things are. I just want Trump in. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Im not happy with the way things are now. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. . That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. SACRAMENTO . Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. It will cycle through. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast.
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