Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. His current term ends on January 3, 2029. Approval Ratings (130) 2023 www.jsonline.com. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. Those include Republican Sens. (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. But that isnt likely to be enough in a state that produces such narrow margins of victory. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. Early polling indicates a tight race. Biden Job Approval on Issues. In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. 2022 Senate Elections (51) @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) 1990 FLEER BASEBALL 501-660 YOU PICK SEE SCANS .99 UNLIMITED SHIPPING HIGH GRADE. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. Last month, he opposed federal funds to help the American microchip industry compete against China, indicating that he did not want to "have government picking the winners and losers.". Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. The poll, whose . "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. A spokesperson for Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says he was unaware of an exchange between his staff and that of Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. Ron Johnson Approval Rating. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2.6 points (45.4 percent to 42.8 percent). House Republicans introduce bill to declare AR-15-style assault rifle US 'national Report finds right-wing radicals responsible for all extremist-related murders in 2022. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. 1990 FLEER. In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. Follow him on Twitter @jeisrael. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Dan McKees mediocre +2 net approval rating, the fact that he is running for the office for the first time (he became governor only because he was the lieutenant governor when the old governor resigned), the pro-Republican national mood and Rhode Islands elasticity. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. Approval rating Approval Disapproval rating Disapproval Net approval. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting that they are capable of outperforming the base partisanship of their state. -36. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. . A trio of red-state Democrats Kentuckys Andy Beshear, Kansass Laura Kelly and Louisianas John Bel Edwards all have PARGs between +31 and +51 as well. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. Tommy Rife, of Cedar Bluff, Va., is charged with one count of misdemeanor assault and battery, according to Richlands Police Chief Ron Holt. The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. He assumed office on January 3, 2011. Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. Senators, behind Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania (36%) and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (33%), according to an April 2022 report from Morning Consult. With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. Approval ratings of the incumbent Democratic Governor, Ralph Northam, have dropped 10 points to 49%, which is still better than the average drop of 14.38% for Democratic governors. But its worth remembering that Lucy has held this football in front of Democrats before. These polling trends dont mean Johnson cant win this fall. Barnes, 35, would become the youngest member of the Senate, as well as Wisconsin's first Black senator, if he wins in November. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Accordingly, he leads all senators with a +35 PARS. Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. Wisconsin Democrats are aiming to flip Ron Johnson's seat blue in November's midterm race, . Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Johnson won his bid for a second term that year by 3 points over Democrat Russ Feingold. . That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. When the dates . Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had not held office prior to his election to the Senate, being a CEO for a plastics and manufacturing company beforehand. Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) RCP Senate Ratings, Map. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Since 2019, his net favorability rating in the WOW counties has dropped from an average of plus 41 to plus-8 in the last four Marquette polls combined. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Have questions? Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. ", He also has angered Wisconsin workers by refusing to even try to bring home good jobs. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. John F. Kennedy 1961-63. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. Those is Tim. Reagan's job approval ratings in the first years of his term were hurt by the bad economy, and the last years of his administration were marred by the negative . This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Susan Collins (25). More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. Price: US $0.99. So is the gap between how conservatives and liberals view him. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. In that sense, I think we can be quite confident the decline is real, Franklin said. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. However, the latest Maqrutee poll shows Johnson up 1% after a barrage of attacks ads. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Lt. Gov. But hes got to execute on a winning message, and if we look at the numbers and the data, we know he hasnt been executing on a winning message.. Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list not just Democrats. Independent Sens. Why has the electorate increasingly polarized over Johnson? Timmy! But his moderation has endeared him to voters in his home state of West Virginia: He has a +22 net approval rating in the R+36 state, for a chamber-leading PARS of +58. According to the latest figures, taken from surveys conducted among 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, 36 percent of Badger State voters approved of his job performance, 51 percent disapproved and 13 percent had no opinion. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland. By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. Doing this for the Senate, we get the following table of senators with the best and worst statewide brands: Senators net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. Kelly won by little under 2.5% in 2020, or about 2 points bigger than Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona. Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. 772 days 4 . Yes. Republicans will probably say that they want a more progressive candidate like Mandela to run against they said the same thing about Tammy, a liberal LGBTQ woman from Madison with a long congressional record, she said. Several conservatives involved in the state argued that Johnson casting himself as foe of Biden and the national Democratic brand could help shore up his intraparty standing. More: The fight over Ron Johnson's US Senate seat will put Wisconsin back in the national spotlight in 2022. RCP House Ratings, Map. Buy It Now. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. A. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. The reelection races of Sens. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. Perhaps the biggest news in the poll is the rise of Michels, who announced his run for governor in late April, too late to be included in the April MU p0ll which last measured the governors race. Joe Zepecki, a Milwaukee-based Democratic communications strategist, said other issues like Russias aggression in Ukraine, the Supreme Courts handling of Roe v. Wade and the uncertain trajectory of the pandemic could also change the climate come November. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Faircloth's loss came in a year in which the President, Democrat Bill Clinton, had an approval rating in the 60s. Mandela Barnes, by five points (51% to 46%) in the state's U.S. Senate race. I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. Johnson is quite popular today with pro-Trump voters in Wisconsin (those who view Trump positively), drawing a net rating of around plus 60 in recent years. 56% of independent voters in . But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. The WOW counties have been growing less Republican, and the recent decline in Johnsons ratings in this region is striking. Appointment o Appoint ambassadors, public ministers, federal judges: with advice and consent of the Senate o Appoints about 3,500 people, of which 1,125 require Senate approval o Can remove many of these apps at will o Technically appts military personnel o Selection of the right people: very imp o Cabinet: formal body of presidential . An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. Meanwhile, Republican U.S. A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. She pointed to tax breaks he supported, that benefited big donors to his campaigns.